“This investment returned 40%” sounds good. But if prices rose 35% that same year, what the money can buy rose by only 3.7%. The first number is the nominal return, the second the real return. Only the second tells you whether your savings actually grew.
Nominal return: the rate on the screen
Nominal return is how much your money grew as an amount. If ₺100,000 became ₺140,000 in a year, the nominal return is 40%. Deposit rates, fund returns and rent increases are usually quoted in nominal terms.
Real return: the change in purchasing power
Real return is the return adjusted for inflation. The question is: “A year from now, how much more can I buy with this money than today?”
A common shortcut is to subtract inflation from the nominal return: 40% − 35% = 5%. When rates are low the shortcut works, but with high inflation it misleads. The correct calculation is the Fisher equation:
Real return = (1 + nominal return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1
In the same example: 1.40 ÷ 1.35 − 1 = 3.7%. The shortcut said 5%; the gap widens as inflation rises.
Don’t forget tax
Part of investment income goes to tax, and tax is charged on the nominal gain, regardless of inflation. That is why tax cuts real return more than you might expect.
An example with October 2026 figures from Türkiye:
- According to CBRT weekly data, the average yearly rate on TL deposits was 42.88% in the week of 16 October. Let’s round to 42%.
- For TL deposits with a maturity of up to 1 year, 15% withholding tax is deducted from interest. Net nominal return: 42 × 0.85 = 35.7%.
- According to TurkStat, annual inflation was 29.73% in September 2026.
| No tax | 15% withholding | |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal return | 42.0% | 35.7% |
| Real return | 9.5% | 4.6% |
Withholding takes 6.3 points off the nominal return but halves the real return. Someone who deposits ₺100,000 gets ₺135,700 a year later, worth about ₺104,600 in today’s money.
Withholding rates depend on maturity. Under the current Presidential Decree, TL deposits are taxed at 17.5% up to 6 months, 15% up to 1 year and 10% for longer. The decree was extended to 31 December 2026; check the current decree after that date.
Real return can be negative
If the return stays below inflation, real return turns negative. For example, with a 25% net nominal return and 30% inflation: 1.25 ÷ 1.30 − 1 = −3.8%. The balance in your account grows, but your purchasing power shrinks. That is exactly what happens to money left in a current account or in cash during high inflation.
Which inflation should you use?
Two kinds of inflation are useful when calculating real return:
- Looking back: TurkStat’s CPI is a good start for measuring what you made last year.
- Planning ahead: You have to estimate inflation that isn’t known yet. The CBRT Survey of Market Participants gives a reference: in October 2026, expected inflation was 23.89% for 12 months ahead and 17.94% for 24 months ahead. These are forecasts, not certainties, so thinking in a range is healthier than relying on one number.
What matters most to you is the price increase of your goal. If you want to buy a home, house prices; if a car, car prices can move differently from general inflation.
How Kartopu calculates it
For a quick calculation with your own numbers, use the real return calculator: enter the amount, nominal return, inflation and tax rate to see net nominal return, real return and what the money is worth today.
In the Kartopu app the same logic runs through your plans. You set return, inflation and your goal’s price growth separately, year by year. Kartopu shows results both in nominal terms and in today’s money, so you can see what figures like “₺5 million in 10 years” really mean.
Sources
- TurkStat (TÜİK), Consumer Price Index, September 2026.
- CBRT, Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS), weekly deposit rates, 16 October 2026.
- CBRT, Survey of Market Participants, October 2026.
- Presidential Decrees No. 10041 and 11444, Official Gazette.
This article is general information, not investment advice.